Modelling is widely used as a tool for assessing risks from climatic and non-climatic pressures on human and environmental systems. Models also help us to evaluate the outcome of adaptive management options under uncertainty, now and in the future. The following examples provide a flavour of our research interests which are focused on flood risk and water resource management under climate change.

Rob Wilby works in partnership with UK and international organisations to model climate change impacts and evaluate adaptation options, primarily on behalf of the water and conservation sectors. Over the past decade he has been developing public domain climate scenario tools such as the Statistical DownScaling Model (SDSM) (see: http://www.sdsm.org.uk). However, due to the large uncertainty in some regional climate change impacts, he is increasingly interested in low-regret, adaptive management techniques. Such interventions yield benefits for people, property and the environment regardless of the climate ‘narrative’ or planning horizon. The associated frameworks and tools are being tested in places such as Djibouti (above right), Morocco and Yemen which are already facing water crises. Likewise, he advises international donors and NGOs on the appropriate use of climate risk information for portfolio screening, adaptation options appraisal, and development planning.

Dapeng Yu is collaborating with East China Normal University to explore flood risk management options for the City of Shanghai. The city is located in a low-lying floodplain, facing flood risks both from Taihu Lake to the west and from sea level rise and tidal surges in the east. The research involves hydraulic modelling of floodplain inundation to assess potential damages to the city as well as the efficacy of measures that might alleviate such risks. For example, the model animation (right) shows a reconstruction of the inundation that occurred during the 1953 flood event. He is also overseeing research into the effects of improved building resilience and climate change on economic losses due to flooding using data collected from recent notable events in the UK.

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